Measuring mobility
The global number of mobile subscriptions will exceed 5 billion before the end of 2010. What about the usage of the devices beyond this astonishing number?
It was recently reported that the total duration of phone calls using mobile phones was longer than the duration of calls using fixed phones during Q1 in Sweden. Many people see no reason for having a fixed line any longer. Could mobile phones eliminate the need for other equipment as well?
A lot of effort is put into predicting the evolution of Internet usage. Total number of Internet users globally is currently at around 1.7 billion. This includes users having acccess to shared computers as well as people using mobile phones to access the Internet. Mobile Internet users globally can be devided into two categories.
Firstly, there are mobile Internet users who also use Internet through computers. These users gradually learn to use their mobile phones as a replacement for the Internet access they used to do on their computers. Services become more conveniently available on the go. Most of them will continue to use their PC for the foreseeable future but I recently read an article about an executive who has thrown away her computer. She uses her mobile phone only.
Secondly, there are mobile Internet users who have never accessed the Internet through a PC. The fastest growth of mobile Internet usage is in countries like India, South Africa and Indonesia. For these users, mobile Internet is not about making available services mobile. It is about making services available in the first place.
When will we see more users paying their bills through their mobile phones than through their computer?
When the mobile phone be the most used device for e-mail access?
When will we see more users checking in to their flight through their mobile than through their computer?
Trends like smartphones and netbooks in combination with mobile broadband also blur the borders between PCs and phones of course. Personally I believe that visions of convergence described by many people are unrealistic. There will be no such thing as the universal device, the universal network or the universal service. I call it "convergence utopia" and I'll elaborate on that some other time.
I admit it, this time I leave you with questions rather than answers. For those of you who think you know the answers, your comments are welcome!
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